Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
